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On November 23, 2022, the General Court of the European Union reversed the conclusion that titanium dioxide was carcinogenic and released a statement (1,2):

First, the Commission made a manifest error in its assessment of the reliability and acceptability of the study on which the classification was based and, second, it infringed the criterion according to which that classification can relate only to a substance that has the intrinsic property to cause cancer.
 
As part of our mission at CRIS we base our safety assessments on the currently available scientific evidence and consider many variables (e.g., study quality, journal of publication, etc.), even if it goes against previous conclusions. Evidence-informed decisions making is critical to ensure that the laws and regulations put into place are for the benefit of the population.
 
The EU General Court maintains that the scientific evidence presented wasn’t the complete picture for the ingredient, “in the present case, the requirement to base the classification of a carcinogenic substance on reliable and acceptable studies was not satisfied.

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  • Import and export data

    According to customs data, the cumulative import volume of titanium dioxide from January to November 2022 is about 116200 tons, a decrease of 34.06% over the same period last year, and the import volume is about 60000 tons; It is estimated that the annual import volume will be 120000 tons, about 70000 tons less than last year. The domestic market demand is weak, and the import of titanium dioxide in China has declined significantly. The new capacity of domestic chlorinated titanium dioxide increased, and the high-end titanium dioxide imported from abroad decreased accordingly.

    According to customs data, from January to November 2022, the total export volume of titanium dioxide was about 1279100 tons, an increase of 8.58% over the same period last year, and the export volume increased by about 101100 tons. The export market maintained a stable and rising trend, and the annual export volume is expected to be 1.38 million tons. The export situation in the first half of the year was better than that in the second half, and the overall export market maintained an increasing trend.

    Capacity output

    According to public data, the cumulative output of titanium dioxide from January to November 2022 is about 3.5755 million tons, up 3% over the same period of last year, with an increase of about 96400 tons, and the annual output is expected to be 3.9 million tons. The enterprises that have increased the output of titanium dioxide this year are mainly, an increase of 11%

    The output growth rate was 2%. This year, the newly launched enterprises CITIC Titanium Industry, Yibin Tianyuan, Shengwei Fuquan and Xianghai Titanium Industry had a significant increase in output compared with last year, and the output of more than 20 small and medium-sized enterprises in the market decreased by different degrees compared with last year.

    Downstream terminal

    From January to November, the national real estate development investment was 12386.3 billion yuan, down 9.8% year on year; Among them, the residential investment was 9401.6 billion yuan, down 9.2%.

    From January to November, the housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 8968.57 million square meters, down 6.5% year on year. Among them, the residential construction area was 6339.16 million square meters, down 6.7%. The newly started housing area was 1116.32 million square meters, down 38.9%. Among them, the newly started residential area was 817.34 million square meters, down 39.5%. The completed housing area was 557.09 million square meters, down 19.0%. Among them, the completed residential area was 404.42 million square meters, down 18.4%.

    From January to November, the sales area of commercial housing was 1212.5 million square meters, down 23.3% year on year, including the residential sales area, down 26.2%. The sales volume of commercial housing was 11864.8 billion yuan, down 26.6%, of which the sales volume of residential housing was down 28.4%.

    At the end of November, the area of commercial housing for sale was 55.203 million square meters, with a year-on-year growth of 10.0%. Among them, the residential area for sale increased by 18.0%.

    From January to November, the paid in capital of real estate development enterprises was 13631.3 billion yuan, down 25.7% year on year. Among them, domestic loans amounted to 1582.3 billion yuan, down 26.9%; The utilization of foreign capital was 6.6 billion yuan, down 26.6%; Self raised funds amounted to 4899.4 billion yuan, down 17.5%; Deposit and advance receipts amounted to 4460.1 billion yuan, down 33.6%; Personal mortgage loans reached 2187 billion yuan, down 26.2%.

    On the whole, affected by the economic pressure this year, the sales volume of real estate has gradually declined this year, and the national infrastructure investment index has also continued to decline. The demand growth of the downstream coating industry will slow down. At present, the purchase restriction policy of real estate has been cancelled, and in November, a trillion yuan of large state-owned banks rushed to help the real estate industry, which is good for the current market to a certain extent.

    3. Future market forecast

    According to the titanium dioxide analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Cooperative, the market price of titanium dioxide will fall sharply in 2022. Affected by the economic situation, the domestic market will be light, but the export market will remain good. The introduction of various favorable policies for real estate before the year will benefit the titanium dioxide market to some extent. It is expected that the titanium dioxide market will mainly maintain stable operation in the short term.
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